One of the major consequences of China’s demographic change is rapid population aging. In 2000, the proportion of the elderly (people over 65 years) in the total population for the first time in China’s history exceeded 7 percent, indicating that China, as a whole, has become an “ageing society”. The total number of elderly population increased from 86.87 million in 2000 to 100.45 million in 2005, accounting for 7.69 percent of the overall population, and signifying an increase by 13.58 million over this five-year period. The number of the elderly people is expected to increase by three times over the first half of the twenty first century. If age 60 is used as the criteria, the number of the elderly in China would be much higher. It is reported that in 2005 the number of people aged 60 and over amounted to 144.08 million, an increase by 0.76 percentage point compared to that of 2000.
Along with the size, the proportion of the elderly in the total population is anticipated to rise quickly in the near future. According to the UN estimation, the median age of China will increase by 12.2 years from 32.6 years in 2005 to almost 45 years in 2050.11 Consequently, the potential support ratio, based on present retirement arrangements, will change from currently 11 elderly persons per 100 working age persons to 39 elderly per 100 working age persons in 2050. The working age population in China will eventually stop growing around 2011, while the growth of the elderly population will continue. While the major cause of rapid aging in China is fertility decline, improvement in longevity is another salient factor in this regard. In 2004, the life expectancy at birth for all Chinese was 72 years with 70 years for males and 74 years for females.
Although the Chinese people nowadays live ten years less than the Japanese, they live on average eight years longer than the Indians. However, marked regional variations exist in China with respect to longevity. The life expectancy at birth for people living in big Chinese cities such as Shanghai has already reached a level similar to that of Japan (83 for female and 79 for men). However the analogous figures are much lower in inland rural areas (Zhao, 2006). An aging population has long been a major challenge facing many cities and wealthier rural areas in the eastern region, while the vast western provinces are lagging behind the national trend with respect to aging. Shanghai is one of the “eldest” provincial units in China. It entered the aging stage (people aged 60 and over accounting for more than 10 percent of the total population) in 1979, and 19.58 percent of the city population, 2.66 million in number, was reported to be 60 and older by the end of 2005. On the other hand, Qinghai province is projected to enter the aging society stage not until 2014. Regional variation in population aging is very similar to the regional variation in current fertility, indicating that the aging process is mainly determined by the path of fertility transition. The accelerated aging process in some eastern regions and big city centers has already resulted in ballooning of fiscal burden, weak consumption, and poor market innovation. These problems are likely to deteriorate further in the near future. Attention should be paid to certain features of the regional data on aging, particularly data for the cities, as most of these data were based on people holding the permanent local household registration status (Huji population, in Chinese), so that migrants were excluded. For instance, if the calculation was based on longterm residents of Shanghai (people living in Shanghai longer than six months regardless of the Huji status), the proportion of the elderly aged 65 and over in Shanghai in 2005 would be 11.94 percent rather than 14.97 percent calculated for Huji population. Therefore, migration, especially inflow of young migrants, can have a significant effect in slowing down the aging process in China’s urban areas.
Unlike many developed countries, aging in China is coming at a much earlier stage in terms of the level of socioeconomic development. For example, Japan reached the median age of 32.6 years in 1980 when her real per capita income was US$15,600. By contrast China has reached the same median age with a real per capita income of US$1,200 only. The transition to an aging society is also occurring over a shorter time span in China. It took Sweden 85 years, United Kingdom 45 years and Japan 28 years to have the proportion in total population of persons aged 65 and over increase from 7 to 14 percent. The comparable demographic shift will be achieved in China in only 27 years. It is also estimated that by the middle of this century, while India will overtake China to become the most populous country in the world, China will become the country with the world’s largest elderly population.
